Increasing Aridity Projected for the Canary Islands by Century’s End, ULL Study Reveals
A study by the University of La Laguna (ULL) forecasts widespread increases in aridity across the Canary Islands by the end of the century due to climate change. The findings highlight significant variations between the islands that may impact water resource availability and agriculture.
The study underscores that aridity, determined by factors such as rainfall, temperature, and vegetation, could worsen as temperatures rise and precipitation diminishes. This poses a risk of soil degradation and desertification, particularly concerning in the islands, which already face limited water resources.
Research shows that since the 1980s, the Canary Islands have experienced a marked decrease in rainfall and a rise in temperatures. The paper, titled ‘Climate projections and the increasing aridity in the Canary Islands,’ published in ‘Theoretical and Applied Climatology,’ examines future aridity trends based on multiple climate change scenarios.
The authors—Noelia Cruz Pérez, Susana Clavijo Núñez, and Juan Carlos Santamarta Cerezal from ULL, alongside researchers from the University of Ljubljana and FICLIMA—compare climate data from 1985-2014 with projections for 2021-2050, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100.
Using ten global climate models and two scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the study notes that Lanzarote and Fuerteventura currently have low aridity indices, while La Gomera is classified as sub-humid dry. Future projections indicate La Gomera may shift to semi-arid classification, with Gran Canaria also moving towards a drier classification under high emission scenarios.
The researchers warn that even slight changes in aridity indices could lead to significant reductions in already low water availability, urging stepped-up measures in water management and agriculture. They advocate for rainwater harvesting, more efficient irrigation systems, sustainable farming practices, and drought-resistant crops. However, the applicability of these measures will depend on local circumstances and available funding.
The team concludes that high-resolution climate projections are essential for developing tailored strategies for water management across different regions of the islands. “With a resolution of 100 metres, planners can precisely see conditions on each slope and farm area, which is crucial for effective water management in the islands,” explained Santamarta.
